Wholesale Market Prices and Trends
Wholesale Gas Element (p/kWh)
| Contract | Price | 3M | 6M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-26 12m | 4.19 | ▲84.4% | ▲51.2% | ▲47.8% |
| Apr-26 24m | 3.47 | ▲57.6% | ▲29.3% | ▲29.0% |
| Apr-26 36m | 3.00 | ▲39.2% | ▲15.3% | ▲16.2% |
| Oct-26 12m | 3.41 | ▲57.4% | ▲27.4% | ▲27.9% |
| Oct-26 24m | 2.87 | ▲34.6% | ▲10.5% | ▲12.0% |
Wholesale Power Element (p/kWh)
| Contract | Price | 3M | 6M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-26 12m | 9.62 | ▲ 32.3% | ▲ 25.3% | ▲ 33.1% |
| Apr-26 24m | 8.41 | ▲ 17.7% | ▲ 12.0% | ▲ 21.2% |
| Apr-26 36m | 7.67 | ▲ 8.1% | ▲ 3.6% | ▲ 12.3% |
| Oct-26 12m | 8.30 | ▲ 17.8% | ▲ 10.8% | ▲ 20.2% |
| Oct-26 24m | 7.44 | ▲ 5.7% | → 0.9% | ▲ 10.0% |
Wider Energy Complex
| Commodity | Price | 3M | 6M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 92.69 | ▲ 49.6% | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 10.7% |
| Coal ($/t) | 132.00 | ▲ 37.4% | ▲ 50.9% | ▲ 37.2% |
| UK Carbon (£/t) | 40.09 | ▼ -31.8% | ▼ -19.8% | ▲ 7.1% |
| EU Carbon (€/t) | 61.10 | ▼ -17.9% | ▼ -12.8% | ▲ 15.4% |
| €/£ | 0.866 | → 0.3% | → 0.8% | ▲ 2.6% |
UK NBP Gas
(Falling)
An EU official reiterated that the bloc faces no immediate supply risk despite the disruption to Qatari LNG. They also said there is currently no request for coordinated measures, either at EU level or nationally. However, markets remain cautious.
Venture Global’s CEO said the firm is positioned to help cover the LNG shortfall, citing a large volume of uncontracted cargoes that could partly cushion the market. However, disruption risks continue to support prices.
(Rising)
A prolonged halt to Qatari LNG could cap EU storage at around 70–75% by winter, as inverted summer–winter spreads discourage injections. With inventories at a five-year low, gas futures remain highly sensitive to supply risks.
Qatar’s LNG shutdown, alongside Iran’s drone threat to prolong disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, is tightening near-term LNG supply. This is lifting European and Asian gas prices and freight rates, and keeping risk premia elevated ahead of the summer storage refill season.
UK Baseload Power
(Falling)
French and Spanish power prices have stayed relatively steady despite Middle East tensions, as higher nuclear and renewable generation in their power mix reduces reliance on gas-fired output and limits spillover.
Eurozone investor confidence weakened sharply as the Iran war drove an energy price shock, lifting inflation concerns and clouding the growth outlook, with markets repricing ECB policy expectations amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
(Rising)
Geopolitical risks continue to intensify as Iran and Israel escalate strikes. The US Senate blocks efforts to curb Washington’s air campaign, and Hormuz shipping remains paralysed, maintaining heightened risk premium across energy markets.
CBAM implementation is widening Balkan power spreads to EUR 40–50/MWh, drawing new traders into large positions and reducing liquidity, as markets reprice carbon border costs amid regulatory uncertainty and retroactive rule risks.
Energy Market News:
Hardliner succession in Iran deepens war risk as oil breaks $100 on Hormuz disruption. Iran has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signalling continuity in hardline control as the US-Israeli conflict enters its second week. Tehran’s institutions swiftly pledged loyalty, while Israel said it would target whoever leads Iran, keeping prospects for de-escalation fragile.
The shift in leadership comes as attacks spread across the region, including strikes on energy infrastructure, reinforcing fears of a broader supply shock. Energy markets reacted sharply. The Brent Crude surged above $100 a barrel, posting its strongest jump since 2022, after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was severely curtailed and several Middle Eastern producers cut output amid safety concerns.
With the strait carrying around a fifth of global oil and LNG flows, traders are pricing a prolonged disruption rather than a short-lived scare. G7 officials are expected to discuss a coordinated release of strategic reserves, but tight physical logistics suggest volatility will remain elevated in the near term.